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The Key Challenges Of Prediction In Roulette
15 Nov 2019

For thousands of years, games and riddles have been an enjoyable and rewarding aspect of human civilization. They tease our brains, challenge our memories and strengthen our competitive skills. Whether it's chess, poker, or Sudoku, one thing in common in all the games is: everything you need to win, is rooted in mathematics.


Roulette game players around the world, have employed various betting strategies to try and make profits, such as Labouchère system, D'Alembert system, Martingale method, Fibonacci method, Chaos strategy, etc. But the bottom line is, as Einstein once said, “no one can win at roulette unless he steals money from the table while the croupier isn’t looking.” 


Essentially, each of these strategies is an attempt to beat the fact that a geometric progression with the initial value of 0.95 (American roulette) or 0.97 (European roulette) will invariably tend to zero over time. 

Every player tries to overcome the ‘house edge’ with the hope that the wager placed, will eventually fetch some earnings.

Here is the theoretical roulette problem posed by Kavouras while arriving at his betting strategy:

  • A player has a bundle of 100 units to wager (1 unit could be any currency or its multiples)
  • For sure, it is known that in the next 100 spins, 45 will be blacks.
  • But outcomes of the remaining 55 spins are unknown – possibly reds, blacks or zeros.

With this information, which is the best mathematical method to bet and make a confirmed and maximum profit?

While this is an interesting question to answer or even explore, the unpredictable nature of roulette is far more complex than just deriving the outcome of the next spin. There are factors as diverse as the positioning of the numbers on the roulette wheel, the mechanical wear and tear of the wheel and deflectors and the more familiar ‘house edge’. 

While Probability Theory does offer some solutions in terms of successful predictions over several rounds of play, yet it relies upon the basic premise of voluminous data gathered over multiple rounds and the ability of the player to wager repeatedly. With a limited amount of capital at disposal, this becomes difficult and practically every time, every player walks out of the room only after losing money to the casino. 

Even if a mathematical capability is developed to predict future outcomes, it does not guarantee profits, since it cannot be predicted out of how many future rounds, the results will be positive and profit-making. Finally, Mathematics has proven for all the popular strategies, that it is practically impossible to overcome the house edge.

Every betting strategy in casino roulette is flawed, and hence every betting strategy is guaranteed to fail eventually. When this happens often enough, the players run out of money and the casino roulette thanks them for paying their bills. The key to staying in the roulette game is to control the impulse to “win back” those losses, even with online roulette. The best way to achieve that is to use a conservative betting system.

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